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October 23, 2005
Holy Flushes!
A few of my otherwise Texas Holdem-inclined friends refuse to play online due to fears of cheating, either by players or by the sites running real-dollar play. Although I know there are folks colluding on Teamspeak or the like, I tend to play $.50/1.00 tables, where any decent cheater's take per hour would likely be extremely low. I find the question of whether or not the House (the poker sites running the games) cheats more interesting.
I have read some forums where players insist the house on some sites will give good hands to multiple players to create more action to generate more rake. (Rake is the house's cut of each hand) I find it a stretch to think many sites regularly rig the game, due to a plethora of tracking tools that would let computer-literate players detect any foul play. However, even I must admit based on the real life games I have played, it seems online play has more big hands. Skeptics may claim this is because online play is faster, and one sees more hands than in real table play.
This past Wednesday I came in 2nd on a real-life tourney table. In the course of the evening we probably played 100-120 hands, which online ranges between 1.5 hours worth of play on a fast table to perhaps 2.5 on a slower table. It took about 3 hours and change and included 2 10 minute breaks. Based on that I guesstimate real life play with a good dealer is maybe 1 to 1.5-2.0 online.
In the tourney, there was one flush and 3 straights (2 of them mine) for high hands in the entire event. The rest of the winning hands either didn't show or were high pair, two pair or three of a kind. In my last 100 hands online, I have won 13 hands with these:
1 flush, Jack high
1 flush, 8 high (4 suited on table)
1 flush Ace high (4 suited on table)
1 flush Queen high
3 x straights
1 3 of a kind Aces
1 3 of a kind Kings
1 3 of a kind Fives
1 2-pair Aces and Eights
1 pair Queen high (Only went to flop)
1 pair 4's
I don't know much about statistics, but that seems like a lot of really good hands. Even with that many high hands, I tend to only break even online (for the year I am up around $100). Just for grins, I broke down the number of hands that ended with 3 or more suited cards on the river (last card on the table):
3 x 3 spades
6 x 3 clubs
8 x 3 hearts
10 x 3 diamonds
1 x 4 clubs
3 x 4 diamonds
1 x 5 diamond
1 x 5 heart
(I didn't win either of the 5 suited)
That is 33 hands that had possible flush draws. Anyone know the odds in general of 3 or more suited cards coming up?
Again, I find it hard to believe that the site I play at regularly rigs games, but perhaps I will break out some poker manuals and figure out whether or not the above is a statistically probable set of hands.
Posted by TLorin at October 23, 2005 3:55 PM
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Comments
Well, based on the #s that you gave for your IRL tourney..
3 Hours
100-120 hands
2 10 min breaks
So you played for 160 minutes, so youre saying that at best, its only taking 90 seconds for the cards to be shuffled, dealt, round of bets, flop, bets, turn, bets, river?
Granted, not each hand makes it to the river, and you may have had an electronic shuffler, but that seems fast. Im inclined to think that there were less hands played...
Posted by: gibb at October 24, 2005 3:16 PM
You may be right, and the hands at the beginning probably took longer than that. Still, I was surprised (in a good way) at the pace of the game even with a full table. And toward the end with only 2-3 of us playing they go quicker. Also, it was a no-limit tourney, so there are a lot of 'all-in' hands that don't even go to the flop.
Here's how I figured 100 hands (though I missed by 20 it looks like). The dealer said it would be 3 rounds of the table between blinds, and I know we had 2 of those before the 2nd person got knocked out, so that is at least 51 (27+24) hands. That would have had the blinds at 2000/4000 (started at 500/1000). We ended at 10,000/20,000 (the last 3 hands). So in there were 2 more blind increases. If they were at an average of 6 and 4 players, that is another 30 hands. Okay, maybe it was more like 80-85 hands, or close to 2 minutes/hand. I seem to remember our dealer getting yelled at though because he didn't up our blind on time the 2nd time.
Still, 80 hands and 1 flush, 3 straights vs. my plethora online seems pretty odd. Maybe if I get ambitious I will check all winning hands, not just mine, and see what I come up with in terms of what wins most often. Last night for example, I won with a couple of high pairs and remember some others doing the same, which was rare when I checked my stats the day before.
It could very well be that part of it is the no-limit hands only go to a showdown every 2 or 3 hands, while online I am playing .50/1.00 so I get to see probably 80% of hands to the end.
Posted by: Tlorin at October 24, 2005 3:55 PM
Guess I'll put my 2 cents in here. It seems that out of 100-120 or so hands, having 33 of those w/3 or more of the same suit on the table is excessive. As far as odds go its easier to get the card you need for a straight draw (after the flop and open ended) than it is getting the flush draw(again after the flop)....have plenty of sites out there that list odds. Those are really the easy odds to remember and although they are important and you need to know them.....Pot odds are far more difficult to calculate on the fly and if you can master those you will win far more than you lose. Top 3 things IMO when playing Texas Holdum are Position, Odds to get your flop,turn,river cards, and Pot Odds. Thats as far as internet play goes....when at a table irl you can be a little more aggressive at times out of position if you sense weakness and wanna bet to push marginal hands out...this is much more difficult playing online for smaller pots (under 20-30 bucks). Although i could talk for a while on this subject i cannot type that long........so if conversation on above sub. is desired just give a holler
Posted by: Saint7 at October 25, 2005 6:39 PM
Actually, I've always wanted to be able to figure pot odds. I've read a couple of articles on it, and I think I am doing it in a general sense, but not well and not because I understand it.;) Sounds like something you should help me with!
Basically, when I play low-stakes online, the more people in the hand who match the blind, the more likely I am to play a draw hand (or any hand), either straight or flush. With only a few people in I have to have a high pair or a high set of suited connectors to stay.
Not a great strategy, but most days it works. (except for tonight, didn't have my brain on and lost some heartbreaking hands)
Posted by: TLorin at October 26, 2005 10:12 PM
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